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美国天然气期货上涨10%,紧随切萨皮克能源公司之后,切萨皮克能源公司很快就成为美国最大的天然气生产商。

    TOP1 Markets 2024-02-23 16:34:16

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    切萨皮克是最新一家削减支出和减少钻孔机的美国天然气生产商,继2023 年价格下跌44% 后,2024 年迄今价格下跌约31%。


    上周,美国能源公司Antero Resources、Comstock Resources 和目前美国最大的天然气生产商EQT 表示,他们还计划今年减少钻探活动。切萨皮克透过减少钻机数量和推迟完井,将先前的资本支出指引降低了约20%,这应将天然气产量从2023 年的约3.5 bcfd 削减至2024 年约27 亿立方英尺/日(bcfd )。


    10 亿立方英尺的天然气足以供应约500 万美国家庭一天的需求。 Perella Weinberg Partners 旗下TPH&Co 的研究主管Matt Portillo 表示:「我们支持这项举措,因为(切萨皮克)大幅削减产量远低于共识预期,同时保留产量,以实现2025年以后更健康的需求市场。 ” Portillo 指的是市场普遍认为,随着目前正在建造的几座液化天然气(LNG) 出口工厂投入运营,美国天然气需求将在2025 年及以后激增。


    预计未来四年,美国液化天然气出口能力将几乎翻一番,从目前的约13.8 bcfd 增至2028 年的约24.4 bcfd。分析师表示,预计液化天然气需求增长是许多生产商尽管价格下跌,仍将天然气产量保持在创纪录水平附近的主要原因- 到目前为止。


    今年到目前为止,天然气价格下跌,因为温和的冬季使供暖需求较低,库存远高于正常水平,尽管一月份北极结冰导致产量短暂减少并导致天然气需求飙升至历史新高,但产量仍接近历史最高水平。


    分析师指出,即使更多生产商削减天然气钻探,2024 年天然气产量仍可能增加,因为原油价格高得足以鼓励石油生产商在德克萨斯州和新墨西哥州的二叠纪盆地以及北达科他州的巴肯盆地等页岩盆地进行钻探。油井产生大量伴生气。


    分析师预测,今年这个时候美国天然气库存将比正常水准高出约22%。美国东部时间上午10:10(格林威治标准时间1510),近月天然气期货上涨15.9 美分,至每百万英国热单位1.735 美元。


    这使得近一个月来11 天内首次脱离技术超卖区域,并将成为自2023 年4 月以来价格上涨11.2% 以来的最大单日百分比涨幅。周二,该合约收于2020 年6 月以来的最低点,当时正是COVID-19 需求破坏的最严重时期。


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